In Reference To... "Dollars to Donuts"
- Katherine Arkady
- May 13
- 4 min read
Introduction
What is the going rate for a donut in your area?
I can get a classic glazed from Dunkin' for $1.09. If I'm feeling fancy, I go to my local small business donut shop and get a (vegan) Jamaican coconut crème donut. It's worth the $4 price tag.
Now, I don't get them often because the fried dough gives me heartburn, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that you've heard the phrase "dollars to donuts" before.
Where did this phrase start? When did donuts become that valuable? And why are pastries involved with financial wagers?
Table of Contents:
What Does “Dollars to Donuts” Even Mean?
You see, donuts to dollars aren't valuable. The whole idea of this phrase is that one is placing a high-value item (dollars) against something of little value (donuts), implying a sure bet. Somebody has to be very confident that they're right in order to say this.
It comes from when doughnuts were only 5¢-10¢ each, so it's like saying "I'd give you 20:1 odds that I'm right."
A Bite of History
In a feature of how good humans can be, fried dough has been around for ages. A recipe for a deep-fried dough ball was recorded by Cato the Elder in his de agri cultura, using cheese, honey, and poppy seeds, called globi.
Doesn't matter what you call them: fried dough cakes, oily cakes, dough "nuts," dow nuts, dough-nuts, and doughnuts. They have been enjoyed here, there, and yonder from China, England, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Bavaria, and other reaches of the world.
But where did the classic donut we commonly think about come to fruition?
According to the Wikipedia page for Doughnuts, Donut rings were invented by American (go figure) Hanson Gregory, who claimed to have invented the ring-shaped doughnut in 1847 aboard a lime-trading ship when he was 16 years old. Gregory was dissatisfied with the greasiness of doughnuts twisted into various shapes and with the raw center of regular doughnuts. He claimed to have punched a hole in the center of dough with the ship's tin pepper box, and to have later taught the technique to his mother.
Why Donuts?
During the Great Depression, donuts solidified their status as an affordable treat. They were so economical that most Americans could purchase them, leading to their moniker as the "everyman food." The Salvation Army had "Doughnut Girls" offering donuts to immigrants arriving at Ellis Island, symbolizing a warm and accessible welcome to America.
So back then, they were very, very affordable and cost much less than a dollar. A very safe bet to make! (Sigh) How times have changed.
Could it have been another food? Sure! American English in the 19th century was primed with food items being used as slang material to describe people, situations, and feelings:
“Apple pie order” – neat and tidy.
“Cheesed off” – annoyed or irritated.
“Cool as a cucumber” – calm under pressure.
“Spill the beans” – to reveal a secret.
“Go bananas” – to act crazy (slightly later, 20th century)
But for whatever reason dollars to doughnuts — the alliteration, the matching syllables, the frivolity? — caught on and became the idiom.
Popularity, Modern Usage, and Variations of "Dollars to Donuts"
This isn't the case for everywhere in the world.
In the United Kingdom, the phrase is “a pound to a penny.” The idea being you’re so sure of the outcome you’d risk a pound to win a penny. In the 19th century, Americans adopted a similar phrase “dollars to dimes,” which, like the British one, has the added advantage of being inflation proof.
In the modern era, even though inflation has rendered the phrase questionable, "dollars to donuts" still pops up in media.
Examples:
Ash vs Evil Dead - The Morgue [S02E02]
Sheriff Thomas Emery: But, dollars to donuts, Ash Williams will figure in his explanation, somehow.
Family Guy - The Boys in the Band [S15E01]
Stewie: Well, how could they address baby issues?
Brian: Children's songs are written by adults. And, dollars to donuts, white adults.
Archer - Danger Island: Some Remarks on Cannibalism [S09E06]
Mallory Archer: But I'll bet you dollars to donuts, they've already escaped, found the idol, and are just yucking it up!
Joe Pickett - Joey, Get Your Gun [S01E03]
Mitch: If I was a gambling man, which I'm not, I would bet donuts to dollars it was Kyle Lensegrav and Calvin...
The Sopranos - S02E11 Drama
Dr. Elliot Kupferberg: Dollars to donuts, you're being exposed to an irritant in the air.
Brian: That's his whole career, driving that damn forklift. You'd think he'd wanna learn how.
Joel: Well, I guess he's got that band he's in too...
Brian: I'll bet dollars to donuts he sucks at that too.
Special thank you to Yarn for being a website where I can search for gifs by keyword. It helps in searches like this one.
Conclusion
Donuts are iconic in their own right. They even have a holiday on the first Friday of June of each year! It started in 1938 as a fundraiser for Chicago's The Salvation Army. Their goal was to help those in need during the Great Depression, and to honor the Salvation Army "Lassies" of World War I, who served donuts to soldiers.
So, next time you’re sure of something, go ahead—bet your dollars to donuts.
It’s a sweet way to sound confident.
Katherine Arkady
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